This Billionaire Just Predicted A 2024 Bitcoin SUPERCYCLE!
Can we trust him & his Wall Street friends?
Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya just predicted that:
‘‘2024 is the year that Bitcoin is going to go mainstream and cross the chasm.''
The spot Bitcoin ETF is only days away and we now have billionaires predicting that Bitcoin could see a supercycle in 2024.
Today we’re going to discuss:
How the Bitcoin Multiplier Effect could trigger a supercycle
The shady background of Chamath
The Bitcoin ETF race
So, Let’s discuss Chamath’s comments in more detail, and explain what it means when a technology ''crosses the chasm?''
https://x.com/LukeMikic21/status/1744114115751321612?s=20
‘‘Crossing the Chasm’’ is a phenomenal book that was written as an attempt to explain one of the most commonly misunderstood points by humans…
Exponential adoption of technologies…
Before we analyze this framework, let’s analyze the S-curve adoption framework to see where a Bitcoin supercycle fits into all of this.
The S-Curve
When you introduce a disruptive technological innovation into any community, it gets adopted at different times and rates by different co-horts of the population.
This process is commonly referred to as the technology life cycle highlighted below.
S-curves are the best graphical representation used to model how this process of adoption surrounding new, disruptive technologies unfolds.
Once a technology reaches sufficient network effects, its’ adoption becomes exponential, as the early majority and laggards frantically race to adopt the new technology.
For most disruptive technologies this inflection point is reached around the 10% adoption mark, as the technology is demonstrating sufficient and growing network effects.
A similar phenomenon is described in the book, ‘’Crossing The Chasm.’’
Crossing the proverbial chasm is another useful framework for analyzing technological tipping points.
The ‘’chasm’’ is that massive gulf at just above 10% adoption that represents how adoption shifts from “early adopters” to the “early majority.”
To be adopted by the early majority, Moore’s framework claims the new technology must have the necessary ingredients to market itself to a wider audience, and demonstrate its ease of use to the technologically unsophisticated.
The new technology must have the necessary ingredients to market itself to a wider audience, and demonstrate its ease of use to the technologically unsophisticated.
This is interesting because many technologies don’t gain mainstream adoption because they focus their product on a niche market.
Gaining adoption by the majority of society has many struggles associated with it, and in the past I've argued that BEFORE 2020, Bitcoin didn't have the ingredients to cross the chasm...
The Bitcoin Lightning Network was underdeveloped, meaning Bitcoin looked like an ineffective Medium Of Exchange to normies outside the Bitcoin circle.
Bitcoin was also not taken seriously by nation-states, public companies, or High Net Worth Individuals.
This has changed now though as we watch an exponentially increasing number of Bitcoin circular economies emerge, utilizing the Bitcoin Lightning Network.
El Salvador has begun a Cambrian explosion, or a ‘‘Big Bang’’ in the Bitcoin circular economy space.
In a similar light, it appears as though Michael Saylor has begun a similar trend in the world of institutional capital as we watch the largest money managers in the world race to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Can we trust these Wall Street billionaires or should we be cautious of individuals such as Chamath, especially considering their history?
Or, is Chamath simply noticing some of these changes and jumping on board an unstoppable trend?
I’m sorry to leave you with those questions for now, but I hope I’ve provided you some value in this short read.
For my beloved paid subscribers who help to support my work and keep my stomach full of delicious El Salvadorean Pupusas, below the paywall, we’re going to answer those questions as we also explore:
The numbers behind what a Supercycle may look like in 2025
Chamath’s & BlackRock’s true intentions with the ETF
My thoughts on the coming ETF capital tsunami
If you’re stacking Sats & can’t afford the subscription that costs less than an X subscription, I understand…
I explored this topic in a little more detail in the live stream I made on this topic today on my YouTube channel:
https://youtube.com/live/OAzbilEdbrI
Entrance Into Bitcoin’s 2nd Epoch
Chamath’s emergence into the Bitcoin space is yet another sign that the world’s billionaires are beginning to come to the realization of what Bitcoin is.
Yes, Chamath has a history of pumping and dumping altcoins like Solana, but he was also VERY early in the Bitcoin space.
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